229 
 WTPA42 PHFO 250323
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  43...Corrected
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
  
 It took awhile...but once the 35 to 40 kt of shear began to 
 impact the core convection from Lane, the battle ended quickly. A
 very helpful AMSR2 89 GHz microwave pass over Lane at 2259 UTC
 showed the circulation center was now mainly comprised of low and
 mid level clouds completely detached from the remaining pockets of
 deep convection to the northeast of the center. Even a blend of the 
 Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates appeared to be too 
 generous, based on the very rapid degradation of the cloud pattern 
 and the WSR-88D radar velocities. Settled on 60 kt for the current
 intensity. 
 
 The new motion estimate is 315/3, but this is a bit uncertain
 until we have more time to examine this change. The low level
 circulation of Lane is expected to continue to weaken in the face of
 continued strong shear, and driven on a westward track by the low
 level flow. The track guidance is in better agreement than I've seen
 it in awhile. If it survives long enough, the global models show
 Lane may get a new lease on life as an extratropical low over the
 Northwest Hawaiian Islands. In any case, we will be happy to get rid
 of the tropical cyclone in our vicinity. Until then, people should
 be mindful of additional impacts that can still occur until Lane
 departs.
 
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1.  Rainbands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane can
 still bring persistent, flooding rainfall and damaging winds.
 Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center.
 Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and
 where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
 upper floors of high rise buildings.
  
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/0300Z 19.2N 158.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  25/1200Z 19.4N 158.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  26/0000Z 19.7N 159.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  26/1200Z 19.7N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  27/0000Z 19.7N 161.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  28/0000Z 20.4N 164.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  29/0000Z 22.0N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  30/0000Z 25.9N 167.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster R Ballard