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 445 
 WTPA42 PHFO 240912
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  39
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
  
 Hurricane Lane is beginning to show some signs of slow weakening
 due to wind shear of over 20 knots from the southwest according to
 the SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in
 satellite imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile
 conditions. Radar reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at
 Molokai and Kohala show the center is becoming elongated in a north
 to south direction. The latest satellite intensity estimates from
 HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.5/102 knots, while the
 UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.7/107 knots. The current intensity is held at
 105 kt based on these estimates.
  
 The initial motion estimate is 350/5 knots, which shows a northward
 turn has occurred this evening. Lane continues to be steered toward
 the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is
 located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to
 show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due
 north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of Lane.
 The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast
 through the next 48 hours. This more closely follows the latest
 consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane
 continues to approach the Main Hawaiian Islands, so there is no
 reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming
 Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the
 islands, Lane is forecast to come increasingly under the influence
 of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the
 exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only
 a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north.
 This will produce considerably worse conditions over the islands.
 Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts
 are expected in the Hawaiian Islands.
  
 Our intensity forecast shows some weakening, but continues to trend
 on the high side of the intensity guidance through 72 hours owing to
 how organized Lane's core has been in recent days. Note that the
 CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content along the latest forecast track
 continues to show very high values during the next 24 to 36 hours,
 so this will likely help maintain the intensity longer than might
 be expected with such high shear. By early next week, it is possible
 that Lane will not survive the shear, and may become a remnant low
 by day 5.
  
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
 intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
 forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
 indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
 remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
 offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
 away from the center.
  
 2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
 a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
 Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind
 through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
 areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands.
 Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise
 buildings.
  
 3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
 prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
 expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
 landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.
  
 4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
 shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
 localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
 of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/0900Z 18.2N 158.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 19.0N 158.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  25/0600Z 19.9N 158.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  26/0600Z 20.3N 160.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  27/0600Z 20.3N 163.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  28/0600Z 21.0N 166.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  29/0600Z 24.6N 168.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston
  
 
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