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 656 
 WTPA42 PHFO 240311
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  38
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
  
 The weakening trend is underway. Over the past several hours, the 
 CDO of Lane has become elliptical as strong shear, 25 to 35 kt in 
 the UW-CIMSS shear analysis, begins to impinge on the core of the
 hurricane. Outflow has become very restricted in the southwest The
 eye, while still clearly evident on radar, is becoming indistinct in
 the visible and infrared satellite imagery. The satellite intensity
 estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous 5.5, and the
 CIMSS FT number was 5.6 with the CI being held up by constraints.
 Based the current intensity of 105 kt on these estimates.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 330/5. There is no change to the 
 forecast philosophy with this package. Lane continues to be steered 
 toward the north on the western side of a mid-level ridge which is 
 located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to 
 show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due 
 north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of the
 cyclone. The official forecast is similar to the previous track, and
 remains a bit left of the consensus tracks. As the inner core
 continues to deteriorate, Lane will come increasingly under the
 influence of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward.
 However, the exact time when this will occur is still rather
 uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling could bring
 Lane farther north, with considerably worse conditions over the
 islands. Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, some
 significant impacts are expected. 
 
 Our intensity forecast shows weakening, but continues to trend on
 the high side of the intensity guidance through 72 hours owing to
 how organized Lane's core has been in recent days. During the later
 periods of the forecast, it is possible that Lane will not survive
 the shear and may become a remnant low even sooner than forecast. 
  
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
 intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
 forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
 indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
 remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
 offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
 away from the center.
  
 2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
 a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
 Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind
 through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
 areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands.
 Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise
 buildings.
  
 3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
 prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
 expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
 landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.
  
 4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
 shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
 localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
 of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/0300Z 17.8N 157.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 18.7N 157.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 19.6N 158.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  25/1200Z 20.1N 158.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  26/0000Z 20.3N 159.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  27/0000Z 20.2N 162.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  28/0000Z 20.8N 165.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  29/0000Z 23.2N 167.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster R Ballard
  
 
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