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 528 
 WTPA42 PHFO 232109
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  37
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
  
 Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning, 
 even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed 
 by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite 
 imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a 
 relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four 
 centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and 
 SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for 
 this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative. 
 
 This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
 to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
 The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
 southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
 east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
 around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
 expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
 the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
 Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
 is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
 this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
 west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
 occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
 12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
 the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
 consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
 in better agreement with the ECMWF.
 
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
 intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
 Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
 center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
 real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
 severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
 the center.
  
 2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
 a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
 These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated
 terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.
  
 3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
 prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
 expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
 landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.
  
 4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
 shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
 localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
 of damaging surf.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster R Ballard
  
 
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