WTPA42 PHFO 232109
Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning,
even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed
by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite
imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a
relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four
centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and
SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for
this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative.
This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
in better agreement with the ECMWF.
1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated
terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.
3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.
4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
Forecaster R Ballard
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