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 237 
 WTPA42 PHFO 212107
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  28
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
  
 Lane remains a powerful hurricane this morning, with a well-
 developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud 
 tops. Morning visible satellite imagery also depicts a well-defined
 eye. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the 53rd Weather 
 Reconnaissance Squadron is flying through Lane again this morning,
 and confirms that the hurricane has intensified further since
 their previous visit on Monday evening. The central pressure
 has dropped around 10 mb during the past 12 hours, with the most
 recent dropsonde in the eye finding 941 mb. Peak SFMR winds measured
 so far have been 134 kt, and max flight level winds are 143 kt.
 Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt
 to 7.0/140 kt, with the latest ADT current intensity at 6.4/125 kt.
 Based primarily on the aircraft data, the intial intensity for this
 advisory is increased to 135 kt, which makes Lane a high-end
 Category 4 hurricane. 
 
 Lane is moving a bit slower this morning and appears to have wobbled
 slightly to the WNW during the last few hours, and the initial
 motion for this advisory is 280/8 kt. Lane has been moving westward
 to the south of a mid-level ridge during the past several days.
 However, this will be changing soon, as Lane begins to round the
 western periphery of this ridge and moves into an area of
 relatively light steering flow. This is expected to allow the
 cyclone to gain latitude as its forward speed diminishes. The
 hurricane is forecast to turn gradually to the west-northwest 
 through tonight, then to the northwest Wednesday through Thursday,
 as it moves between the mid-level ridge to the east and a developing
 upper-level trough to the northwest of Hawaii. After this point, the
 track and intensity forecasts remain highly uncertain, as the
 majority of the reliable model guidance brings Lane very close to
 the islands with potential interaction between Lane and the 
 mountainous terrain of the islands. This interaction combined with
 increasing vertical wind shear leads to a weakened Lane being
 steered to the west by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track
 forecast has been nudged slightly to the north or closer to the
 islands from 36 through 72 hours, into better agreement with the
 multi-model consensus HCCA.
  
 Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently
 warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant
 weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will
 likely be due to increasing wind shear. In the short-term through
 the next 24 hours or so, shear is expected to remain light, and
 expect only slow weakening as the cyclone moves over slightly 
 cooler SSTs and may be impacted by eyewall replacement cycles.
 At 72 hours and beyond, the forecast anticipates a sharp increase
 in shear as Lane moves closer to the large upper trough to the
 northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The new intensity
 forecast is close to the previous forecast, and although it 
 remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, it generally
 follows the trends presented by the multi-model consensus IVCN and
 HCCA.
  
 In addition to continued storm penetrations by the Hurricane Hunters
 of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the NOAA G-IV will once
 again be sampling the larger scale environment today to help with
 initialization of the forecast models.
  
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
 Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
 damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
 rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the
 islands, it will produce large and damaging surf. A Hurricane Watch
 remains in effect for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional
 Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required this afternoon
 or tonight.
  
 2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of
 the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even
 if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to
 remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from
 the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
 monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/2100Z 14.3N 153.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 14.7N 154.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 15.6N 155.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 16.6N 156.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  23/1800Z 17.9N 156.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  24/1800Z 20.6N 158.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  25/1800Z 21.7N 160.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  26/1800Z 21.5N 164.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Jacobson
  
 
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