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 274 
 WTPA42 PHFO 211457
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  27
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
  
  
 Lane remains a powerful hurricane this morning, with a well-
 developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud 
 tops. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were a
 unanimous 6.5/127 kt while ADT was in relative agreement. The
 initial intensity for this advisory remains at 130 kt as Lane's
 satellite signature has changed little since last sampled by
 Hurricane Hunters and the NOAA P-3 Monday evening. 
 
 The initial motion for this advisory is 275/10 kt, with Lane 
 continuing to be steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. Over
 the next day or two, Lane is expected to reach the western periphery
 of the ridge, and into an area of relatively light steering flow.
 This is expected to allow the cyclone to gain latitude as its
 forward speed diminishes. In this scenario, Lane will begin to make
 a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Wednesday, with a more
 decided turn toward the northwest on Thursday. After this point, the
 track and intensity forecast become increasingly uncertain, as a
 bulk of the model guidance is depicting interaction between Lane and
 the terrain of the islands. This interaction then leads to a
 weakened Lane increasingly being steered by the low-level trade wind
 flow. The updated track forecast is essentially an update of the
 previous official forecast, and lies very close to the multi-model
 consensus HCCA.
 
 Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently 
 warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant 
 weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will 
 likely be due to shear. In the short-term, shear is expected to
 remain light, and subtle intensity fluctuations associated with 
 inner-core dynamics will likely lead to little overall change in 
 intensity. By 72 hours, the forecast anticipates an increase in 
 shear as Lane lies between the ridge to the east and a trough 
 aloft to the northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The updated 
 intensity forecast is close to the previous, and although it is on
 the higher end of the guidance envelope, it closely follows
 the trends presented by the multi-model consensus IVCN. 
 
 In addition to an increasing number of storm penetrations by the 
 Hurricane Hunters of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance, the NOAA G-IV 
 will once again be sampling the larger scale environment to help 
 forecast models better initialize. The NOAA P-3 mission slated for 
 this morning has been scrapped as the aircraft needs to be examined 
 after encountering strong turbulence last night. 
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian 
 Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing 
 damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy 
 rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the 
 islands, it will produce large and damaging surf, mainly along 
 exposed south and west facing shores. A Hurricane Watch has been 
 issued for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional Tropical
 Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required later today or tonight. 
 
 2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of 
 the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even
 if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to 
 remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from
 the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
 monitor the progress of Lane the next couple of days. 
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/1500Z 14.1N 152.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
  12H  22/0000Z 14.4N 153.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
  24H  22/1200Z 15.0N 154.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  23/0000Z 15.9N 155.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  23/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  24/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  25/1200Z 21.5N 159.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  26/1200Z 21.5N 163.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard
  
 
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