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 483 
 WTPA42 PHFO 192109
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  20
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 19 2018
  
 After lacking a distinct eye through the night, Lane regained this
 feature near sunrise. However, after a few hours the eye began to
 cloud over once again. Nevertheless, this system remains
 well-organized this morning, with a concentric convective ring and
 good outflow to the north through northeast. Outflow elsewhere is a
 bit restricted, a result of the 17 kt of vertical shear noted by
 UW-CIMSS. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range
 from 6.5/127 kt (PHFO), to 5.0/90 kt (SAB). PTWC estimated 6.0/115
 kt, while ADT from UW-CIMSS was 109 kt. This is quite a wide range,
 possibly the result of the overnight loss and sudden reappearance of
 a distinct eye right around analysis time. Initial intensity is set
 at 110 kt for this advisory, representing a slight adjustment upward
 using a blend of estimates. 
 
 Initial motion is 280/12 kt as Lane continues tracking just a shade
 north of due west along the southern flank of a large subtropical
 ridge. A frontal boundary far northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands
 is forecast to move southeast as it weakens, eroding the western
 portion of the ridge from day 3 and beyond. The spread in track
 guidance continues to be rather wide beyond 48 hours as each model
 handles this ridge erosion differently. However, consensus guidance
 continues to be most helpful. The forecast track was nudged
 slightly northward through 36 hours, due to initial motion, but
 remains quite close to the previous track from 48 through 96 hours,
 following TVCX consensus. Forecast points from 120 hours and beyond
 lie between CMCI and ECMWF solutions. GFS remains near the right
 edge of the guidance envelope, affecting all associated ensembles. 
 A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic sampling in the
 environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane later today. The
 valuable data collected during this mission will be available to
 better initialize the forecast models.
  
 The intensity forecast follows the logic of the previous one, only
 with a slightly higher initial intensity. Lane will remain over
 27-28 degree C waters through the forecast period, with 10 to 20 kt
 of vertical shear through most of its track, at least according to
 the ECMWF-derived SHIPS run. Gradual weakening is forecast through
 the forecast period, closely following FSSE and SHIPS. The
 weakening curve lies just above IVCN consensus. Note that the latest
 CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a local maximum along the
 track starting around day 3. If this verifies, Lane may remain
 stronger than anticipated beyond day 3.
  
 Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
 Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
 tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch
 the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity
 forecast errors can be large.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/2100Z 13.5N 144.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 13.8N 146.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 14.1N 148.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 14.3N 150.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 14.6N 152.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 15.2N 155.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  23/1800Z 16.5N 158.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  24/1800Z 18.2N 161.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Powell
  
 
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