857 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 181440
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012
  
 THE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE
 SOUTH...IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
 HOURS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER EASIER. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
 HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT...THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE
 HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCTION IN THE
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
 T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT LANE RECENTLY SHOWED AN EYE
 FEATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. LANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE
 NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
 THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS IT POLEWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS
 EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL AND
 MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING ENSUES. BY
 24 HOURS...THE SHALLOW VORTEX OF A SEVERELY WEAKENED LANE IS
 FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY
 TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
 INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HURRICANE
 FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM TV15.
 
 STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
 PERIOD AS LANE MOVES OVER SHARPLY COOLER SSTS OF LESS THAN 22C...
 AND ALSO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
 MORE THAN 25 KT. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
 LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER FOR
 BOTH SCENARIOS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND
 LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  18/1500Z 20.1N 127.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  19/0000Z 20.9N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  19/1200Z 21.5N 129.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  20/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  21/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART