046 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 172036
 TCDEP2
  
 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
 200 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012
  
 INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...AND
 A NARROW RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY ENCIRCLES THE
 SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
 T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND RECENT NHC AODT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.3/73 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE VALUES
 SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08 KT. HURRICANE LANE IS ON TRACK
 AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING. LANE IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
 A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE
 CYCLONE WEAKENS INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE. AFTERWARD...THE
 SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED WESTWARD TO
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.
 
 LANE HAS LIKELY PEAKED OR WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6
 HOURS SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26C SSTS...AND WILL BE MOVING
 OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A COOLER...DRIER...AND
 MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE STEADY
 WEAKENING BEGINNING BY THE 12-HOUR FORECAST TIME...AND CONTINUE
 THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 48 HOURS...
 SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 
 30 KT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LANE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
 LOW SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS
 AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/2100Z 17.6N 127.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  18/0600Z 18.8N 127.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  18/1800Z 20.2N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  19/0600Z 21.2N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  19/1800Z 21.6N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  20/1800Z 21.2N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/1800Z 19.9N 138.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART