831 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 170844
 TCDEP2
  
 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
 200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE HAS EVOLVED INTO A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE
 OVERCAST DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER FULLY
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
 THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO INCREASED IN
 ORGANIZATION SINCE LATE YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED
 TO A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THE BASIS OF THESE
 DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 65 KT. LANE IS
 APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY
 COLDER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH LIMITS THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE COLDER WATERS AND A SIGNIFICANT
 INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS SHOULD HASTEN
 WEAKENING...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH FSSE/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT.
  
 RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE HEADING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
 TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/08.  LANE
 SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
 INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 130W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
 HOURS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SHARPLY TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN
 WEST-SOUTHWEST AS LANE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
 FLOW.  BASED LARGELY ON THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL MOTION...THE NHC
 TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE
 FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
 TVCE.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/0900Z 15.9N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  18/0600Z 18.6N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  18/1800Z 20.0N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  19/0600Z 20.7N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  20/0600Z 20.9N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/0600Z 20.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN