459
FOPZ13 KNHC 140252
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 6(29) 2(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 7(27) 1(28)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 1(18)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20)
P VALLARTA 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 9(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 20(21) 15(36) 5(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 34 2 19(21) 9(30) 4(34) 2(36) 1(37) X(37)
MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
L CARDENAS 34 8 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 19(30) 7(37) 2(39)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 7(30) 1(31) X(31)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 173N 1036W 34 46 19(65) 2(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
12 173N 1036W 50 5 5(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
12 173N 1036W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 180N 1050W 34 5 48(53) 13(66) 3(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70)
24 180N 1050W 50 X 14(14) 9(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
24 180N 1050W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
36 188N 1065W 34 1 15(16) 36(52) 12(64) 5(69) 1(70) X(70)
36 188N 1065W 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29)
36 188N 1065W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
48 195N 1080W 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 24(51) 13(64) 3(67) X(67)
48 195N 1080W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27)
48 195N 1080W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11)
72 205N 1105W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 27(43) 9(52) 2(54)
72 205N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) 1(21)
72 205N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
96 220N 1130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 15(30) 4(34)
96 220N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
96 220N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
120 245N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16)
120 245N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
120 245N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 50 60 70 75 70 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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