077 
 WTPA41 PHFO 030845
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062009
 1100 PM HST SUN AUG 02 2009
 
 LANA IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER AS OF 800
 PM HST...0600 UTC MONDAY...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM NO STRONGER THAN
 DEPRESSION STATUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CPHC HAD TO RELY ON
 MET TO DERIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 2.0...WHILE JTWC JUDGED THIS
 SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT LANA IS
 MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WHILE SCATTERED TO SPOTTY BROKEN
 HIGH CLOUDS FLY ACROSS THE CENTER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE
 OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT WITH THESE WINDS LIKELY
 CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
  
 LANA REMAINS IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS RIDGE AS LANA MOVES
 WESTWARD...KEEPING LANA WELL WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERLY TRADE WIND
 BELT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE...LYING JUST SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF CLOSELY GROUPED MODEL
 CONSENSUS. SYSTEM MOTION REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE
 OBJECTIVE AIDES.
  
 HIGH CLOUDS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
 BETRAY THE PRESENCE OF DEBILITATING SHEAR. UW-CIMMS OUTPUT SHOWS
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT 26 KT ACROSS LANA...WHILE SHIPS
 INITIALIZES AT 34 KT FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. SHIPS FORECASTS SHEAR
 TO REMAIN CHIEFLY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 120
 HOURS. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS LOVE SHEAR...SO CONVECTION MAY
 OCCASIONALLY FLARE NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NEAR FUTURE...BUT WITH
 SHEAR THIS STRONG LANA IS UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A STRONGER
 TROPICAL SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 CALLS FOR LANA TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0900Z 14.5N 162.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     03/1800Z 14.8N 164.2W    25 KT
  24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.2N 167.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N 170.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     05/0600Z 15.8N 173.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL