500 
 WTNT41 KNHC 271506
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
 SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
 THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO BE
 AFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE
 HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A
 NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTER OF KYLE
 TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY.
 
 KYLE CONTINUES IT ZIG-ZAG PATH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
 THE NORTHWEST JOG SEEN EARLIER NOW BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
 NORTHWARD JOG.  THE SMOOTHED 12-HR MOTION USED IN THE ADVISORY IS
 345/13.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
 UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
 THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12-24 HR OR
 SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS
 THE WESTERLIES.  THE TIMING OF THIS TURN WILL DETERMINE IF THE
 CENTER OF KYLE MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINE...OR WHETHER IT MAKES
 LANDFALL IN NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  WHILE THE OVERALL
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE
 GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
 RUNS AND NOW CALL FOR A LANDFALL IN MAINE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
 IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR THE
 CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK IN ABOUT
 48 HR.  THE TRACK LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.
 
 KYLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL
 WINDS.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH
 WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
 WOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS
 ALL FORECAST KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD
 WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN 24-36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER KYLE REACHES THE COLDER WATER...IT
 SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS.  KYLE IS
 EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER EASTERN CANADA BY 72 HR AND
 BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 96 HR.
 
 THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE WATCHES FOR
 PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/1500Z 32.1N  69.6W    60 KT
  12HR VT     28/0000Z 34.7N  69.8W    65 KT
  24HR VT     28/1200Z 38.8N  68.9W    70 KT
  36HR VT     29/0000Z 43.0N  67.5W    65 KT
  48HR VT     29/1200Z 46.7N  66.0W    45 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     30/1200Z 51.0N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
  96HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN