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 895 
 WTNT41 KNHC 252033
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
 500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
  
 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
 WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED
 SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD
 CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
 HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL
 A BIT ELONGATED...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH
 AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE THE
 CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS
 FIRST ADVISORY.  SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
 THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE
 THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS...MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7.  HOWEVER THE
 EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF
 THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK
 DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE
 EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.  THROUGH
 THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL TURN
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
 TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE
 TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
 SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/2100Z 23.5N  68.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.2N  68.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     26/1800Z 27.7N  68.7W    55 KT
  36HR VT     27/0600Z 31.0N  69.0W    60 KT
  48HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  69.0W    65 KT
  72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.0N  67.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     29/1800Z 50.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     30/1800Z 53.0N  53.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
  
 
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