298
WTPZ43 KNHC 110237
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018
Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now
passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become
confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to
some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.
The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in
agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent
forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the
next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur
tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to
lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low.
Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion
estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next
couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest
as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-
level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its
convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest
is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low
dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been
shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the
trends in the latest consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg/Latto
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