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 298 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 110237
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018
 
 Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now
 passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become
 confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to
 some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.
 The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in
 agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent
 forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the
 next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur
 tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to
 lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low.
 
 Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion
 estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next
 couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest
 as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-
 level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its
 convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest
 is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low
 dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good
 agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been
 shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the
 trends in the latest consensus models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg/Latto
 
 
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