172 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 102041
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  16
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018
 
 It looks like Kristy may have peaked in intensity. The cloud tops
 of the central dense overcast have warmed since 6 hours ago, and any
 hints of an eye-like feature in visible imagery have disappeared.
 The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise of all
 available satellite estimates, which still vary widely. Kristy has
 crossed the 26 C SST isotherm, and steady weakening from this point
 is likely as the tropical storm moves over progressively colder
 waters. All of the intensity guidance agrees on this solution, and
 confidence in the forecast is high. The dynamical models generally
 agree that cyclone will lose all deep convection by Sunday and
 become a remnant low.
 
 Kristy is moving due north, and the initial motion estimate is
 360/7 kt. Kristy should continue to move generally northward for the
 next 24 hours or so while it maintains at least some deep
 convection. Beginning day 2, a turn toward the northwest, and
 eventually west, will begin as the cyclone becomes increasingly
 steered by low-level easterly flow to the north. The guidance,
 especially the GFS, has shifted southwestward again, but is at
 least in a little better agreement than it was previously. The NHC
 forecast has likewise been shifted substantially toward the
 southwest by the end of the forecast period, and remains very close
 to HCCA and TVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 19.6N 129.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 21.2N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 21.6N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  13/1800Z 22.8N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky