028 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 161441
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
  
 A 0955 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF
 CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF WHAT REMAINS
 OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
 HOWEVER...REMAINS AT 35 KT BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT AMSU-A
 UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. KRISTY SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION
 LATER TODAY AS IT REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION AND
 CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE SSTS OF 22-23C. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT
 LOW IS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A SHALLOW...WEAK SYSTEM...THEN DRIFT
 NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS.  THE NHC
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/1500Z 24.5N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 25.3N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 26.1N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  18/0000Z 26.8N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1200Z 27.2N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS