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 579 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 151449
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
  
 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A
 WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND BANDING
 FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
 INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOTS. THE
 CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND IT WILL BE
 HARD TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER WITH SUCH A COOL
 OCEAN BENEATH. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS
 FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR EARLIER. 
 
 KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
 THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE
 OF DAYS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK SHALLOW LOW
 LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF BUT AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL
 BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/1500Z 22.4N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 23.3N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  17/0000Z 25.0N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  17/1200Z 26.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
 
 363 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 151449
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
  
 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
 BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION...AND MICROWAVE DATA
 SHOW THAT THERE IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ON THIS BASIS...
 ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAVE BEEN INITIATED.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE
 VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO
 BE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
 OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO ABATE...AND WHILE THE DEPRESSION
 IS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING. IN
 ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
 EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY
 WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
 EDGE OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
 NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
 THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...IT
 SHOULD BECOME STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/1500Z 14.0N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 14.1N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  17/0000Z 15.3N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  17/1200Z 16.4N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  18/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  96H  19/1200Z 20.5N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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