579
WTPZ41 KNHC 151449
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A
WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND BANDING
FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND IT WILL BE
HARD TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER WITH SUCH A COOL
OCEAN BENEATH. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.
KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK SHALLOW LOW
LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF BUT AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 22.4N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 23.3N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 25.0N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 26.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
363
WTPZ42 KNHC 151449
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION...AND MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW THAT THERE IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ON THIS BASIS...
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAVE BEEN INITIATED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE
VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO
BE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO ABATE...AND WHILE THE DEPRESSION
IS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING. IN
ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...IT
SHOULD BECOME STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.1N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 15.3N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 16.4N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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