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 029 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 131432
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
 800 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012
  
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...IT COULD HAVE DETERIORATED A LITTLE
 BIT...AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ON THE
 NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
 SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
 ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE...KRISTY IS HEADING
 TOWARD COOL WATERS AND APPROACHING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THIS
 BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND KRISTY IS
 MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
 IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT
 TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE...AND KRISTY
 WILL PROBABLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW. THE
 CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE MOST OF
 GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...AGREE ON A
 WEST-NORTHWEST SOLUTION. IN FACT...THIS PATH IS VERY CLOSE TO
 CLIMATOLOGY.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/1500Z 18.9N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 19.5N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  14/1200Z 20.2N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  15/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  15/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  16/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  17/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/1200Z 26.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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