706 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 130246
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
 800 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012
 
 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT
 INDICATE THAT KRISTY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
 THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
 NEAR THE CENTER AND BANDING IS IMPROVING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
 EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...AND THIS AGREES WITH A BLEND
 OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
 SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS REVEAL A QUITE IMPRESSIVE
 OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS WIND ANALYSIS
 CONTRADICTS THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
 15-20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY JUST THE STRONG
 OUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. KRISTY SHOULD
 STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MUCH
 COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST INDICATES A PEAK
 INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...FURTHER
 STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE IS POSSIBLE...AS INDICATED BY
 THE SHIPS AND THE HWRF MODELS. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
 OCCUR AFTER THAT...AND KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
 AROUND DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED
 PRIMARLY ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF
 MODEL ALL SHOW THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
 GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KRISTY GENERALLY
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY THE
 GFDL MODEL INDICATES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
 PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THIS
 PARTICULAR MODEL HAS EXHIBITED A NORTH OR RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS FOR
 TROPICAL CYCLONES LOCATED SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE
 TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/0300Z 18.0N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  13/1200Z 18.5N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  14/0000Z 19.2N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  14/1200Z 20.0N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  15/0000Z 21.1N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  16/0000Z 23.5N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  17/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/0000Z 25.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS