267 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 060235
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006
 
 EASTERLY SHEAR ABATED SOMEWHAT OVER KRISTY AND IT APPEARED THAT THE
 CENTER HAD BECOME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
 HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSE TO NORTHERN 
 EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION
 HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE
 VARIOUS AGENCIES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO 35 KT.  THIS IS PROBABLY
 JUST ANOTHER ONE OF KRISTY'S INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...AND SOME
 RE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN AN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND
 MARGINAL SST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
 FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATE IN THE
 PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE HOSTILE DUE TO AN
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
 KRISTY AROUND 120 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN
 MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.
 
 MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
 CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL
 CYCLONE.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY IS
 PREDICTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
 WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT
 SOUTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFS MOVES KRISTY SIGNIFICANTLY
 FASTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS PROBABLY
 BASED ON NEAR-SURFACE STEERING WINDS FOR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.  WHILE
 THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION...IT IS PREFERABLE TO
 MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO BE
 CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0300Z 17.1N 123.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     06/1200Z 17.4N 125.5W    40 KT
  24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.8N 127.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W    45 KT
  48HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 130.7W    45 KT
  72HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 136.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N 139.5W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH