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 186 
 FOPZ12 KNHC 051430
 PWSEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27           
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006               
 1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
 LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
  
 ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                   GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 167N 1230W 34 31   6(37)   X(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
  12 167N 1230W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  12 167N 1230W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  24 171N 1251W 34  1  22(23)   7(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
  24 171N 1251W 50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  24 171N 1251W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  36 175N 1270W 34  X   4( 4)  16(20)   5(25)   2(27)   1(28)   X(28)
  36 175N 1270W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  36 175N 1270W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  48 175N 1285W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)   6(23)   1(24)   X(24)
  48 175N 1285W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
  48 175N 1285W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
  
  
  72 175N 1315W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   1(17)
  72 175N 1315W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
  72 175N 1315W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
  96 175N 1345W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
  96 175N 1345W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
  96 175N 1345W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
 120 175N 1375W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
 120 175N 1375W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 120 175N 1375W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      35      35      35      35
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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