843 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 030233
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
  
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN LACKING
 PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 18 HOURS.  THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY STABLE AIR
 MASS...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 100/3...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
 FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND DISSIPATE IN
 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
 UKMET...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL SHOW A SHALLOW VORTEX MOVING
 WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A RETROGRADING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
 KRISTY.  IF KRISTY HANGS ON AS A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEYOND
 THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SWIRL
 WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE REESTABLISHING
 EASTERLY TRADE FLOW. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0300Z 18.3N 118.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     04/0000Z 17.6N 117.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N 116.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN