623 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 022035
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
  
 KRISTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE 02 SEP 1318Z QUIKSCAT
 PASS SHOWS THAT WHILE THE NCEP RETRIEVALS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION
 OPENING, THE FNMOC AND AMBIGUITY REVIEW SUPPORTS A CLOSED CENTER
 WITH A FEW 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS.  FURTHER, THE MASS OF
 CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND IS
 ACCELERATING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700 MB
 WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  VISIBLE AND INFRARED
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INTRUSION OF DRY, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
 AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER.  WHILE
 WE EXPECT KRISTY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AN AREA OF
 INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MAY RETARD THE DISSIPATION.
 
 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A MORE CONSISTENT SUTHEASTWARD
 DIRECTION AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS...OUR FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS.  THE DYANMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
 UNUSUAL EASTERWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH FASTER.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/2100Z 18.3N 118.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W    30 KT
  24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.9N 117.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA