897 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 021446
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
  
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS WEAKENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
 NOW EXPOSED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE CONVECTION
 PREVIOUSLY CONCENTRATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS ROTATED
 CYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EAST AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INWARD WRAPPING
 HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WE EXPECT CONTINUED WEAKENING AND FORECAST
 DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS.
 
 KRISTY IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OUR
 FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE OPEN U TURN THAN IN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM'S
 CURRENT POSITION.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHALLOW BAM AND CONSENSUS
 ALL PREDICT A FASTER U TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
 SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED WESTERLIES.  OUR SLOWER MOTION IS BASED ON
 FASTER DISSIPATION THAN IN THE MODELS...BUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH
 THE GFS SOLUTION. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.8N 118.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
  48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     05/1200Z...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA