679 
 FOPZ12 KNHC 011440
 PWSEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11           
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006               
 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
 LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
  
 ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                   GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 199N 1189W 34 62   3(65)   1(66)   X(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
  12 199N 1189W 50  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  12 199N 1189W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  24 202N 1196W 34 16  11(27)   2(29)   X(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
  24 202N 1196W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  24 202N 1196W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  36 202N 1203W 34  2   9(11)   4(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
  36 202N 1203W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  36 202N 1203W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  48 200N 1207W 34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
  48 200N 1207W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  48 200N 1207W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
  72 195N 1210W 34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  72 195N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  72 195N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     40     30      25      25      20       0       0
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI