508 
 FOPZ12 KNHC 310236
 PWSEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006               
 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
 LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 ISLA CLARION   34  8   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 178N 1165W 34 90   5(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
  12 178N 1165W 50 53  14(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
  12 178N 1165W 64 21   9(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
  
  24 186N 1177W 34 19  56(75)   9(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   1(86)
  24 186N 1177W 50  2  38(40)  10(50)   2(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
  24 186N 1177W 64  X  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
  
  36 193N 1190W 34  2  31(33)  30(63)   6(69)   3(72)   X(72)   X(72)
  36 193N 1190W 50  X   8( 8)  21(29)   6(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)
  36 193N 1190W 64  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
  
  48 199N 1204W 34  1   6( 7)  26(33)  17(50)   7(57)   X(57)   1(58)
  48 199N 1204W 50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)
  48 199N 1204W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
  
  72 202N 1230W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)  15(29)   3(32)   1(33)
  72 202N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
  72 202N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
  
  96 200N 1245W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   4(19)   1(20)
  96 200N 1245W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  96 200N 1245W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
 120 195N 1260W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 120 195N 1260W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 120 195N 1260W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     65     70      70      65      50      40      30
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN