472 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 300920
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD-12E HAS BECOME BETTER
 ORGANIZED AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND
 EXPANDED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
 UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KRISTY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/6...BASED ON A BLEND
 OF INFRARED SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT WIND DATA.
 KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER
 THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF 6-8 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
 OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
 AXIS SITUATED BETWEEN 120-130W LONGITUDE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
 CREATING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT
 TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO
 THE NORTH OF KRISTY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
 LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE
 NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 KRISTY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C SSTS AND IN A VERY LOW
 VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 48
 HOURS...SO AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN
 THAT KRISTY IS A SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
 THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS INDICATING AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0900Z 16.5N 114.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 115.4W    40 KT
  24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W    45 KT
  36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 117.6W    55 KT
  48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.7N 118.8W    65 KT
  72HR VT     02/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART