914 
 WTNT41 KNHC 020255
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012
  
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIRK HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING
 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW ONLY CONSISTS OF A FEW PATCHES.
 AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS
 SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 50 KT...AND THAT COULD
 BE GENEROUS. KIRK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
 SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 20C AND INTO
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT. THE SMALL CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED SUNDAY NIGHT BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS
 CURRENTLY SITUATED ABOUT 500 N MI TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE INTENSITY
 AND WIND RADII FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY
 THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT AS
 IT IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF A TROUGH.
 A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
 IS EXPECTED UNTIL KIRK IS ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0300Z 41.2N  41.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 44.5N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  03/0000Z 50.0N  30.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
 
 160 
 WTNT42 KNHC 020255
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012
 
 THE CENTER OF LESLIE REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
 CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO 15-20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT
 FROM SAB.  DATA FROM THE INDIAN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER NEAR 1630 UTC
 SUGGESTED AN INTENSITY NEAR 55 KT.  SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
 HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
 AT A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 55 KT.
  
 LESLIE HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
 AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
 NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS
 IT MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A
 MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N72W AND A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 NORTH OF 35N BETWEEN 55-75W. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
 AGREES THAT LESLIE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY IN A GENERALLY NORTHWARD
 DIRECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THE
 REMANTS OF ISAAC...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND A
 SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES PASSING NORTH OF THE STORM. THE
 GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE
 NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
 FORECASTING INCREASING SHEAR OVER LESLIE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...
 AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 25 KT.  DESPITE
 THIS...MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EITHER MAINTAINS THE
 STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE OR FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
 TIME.  BASED ON THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
 CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...WITH THE
 FORECAST NEAR THE THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  THE
 SHEAR MAY START TO SUBSIDE AFTER 48 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
 FORECAST LESLIE TO GROW IN BOTH SIZE AND DEPTH DURING THAT TIME. 
 THIS PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...BUT IS WEAKER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0300Z 20.2N  58.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 21.3N  60.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 23.1N  61.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  03/1200Z 24.7N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  04/0000Z 25.8N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  05/0000Z 27.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  06/0000Z 28.0N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  07/0000Z 29.5N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN