235 
 WTNT41 KNHC 290831
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
 500 AM AST WED AUG 29 2012
  
 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...KIRK IS
 STILL PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE
 NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
 HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND A CONSENSUS OF
 THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOUTHWESTERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN SOME
 DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE KIRK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
 WATERS WARMER THAN 26C FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND BECAUSE OF THE
 ANTICIPATED MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...STRENGTHENING
 SEEMS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
 THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY THE
 END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER VERY COOL
 WATERS AND IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD
 CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
 MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
 NORTHEAST WITH A PROGRESSIVELY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
 AS KIRK MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING
 TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO
 COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT IT STILL
 LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/0900Z 24.3N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  29/1800Z 24.7N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  30/0600Z 25.3N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  30/1800Z 26.4N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  31/0600Z 28.1N  51.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  01/0600Z 32.5N  51.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  02/0600Z 38.0N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  03/0600Z 46.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI