047 
 WTPA41 PHFO 310904
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2015
  
 THE EYE OF KILO BECAME RATHER WELL-DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 
 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND 
 SOUTHWEST DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 12 KT 
 FROM 240 DEGREES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0/115 KT FROM 
 SAB...PHFO AND JTWC. THE 0600Z UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS NEAR 130 
 KT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE VALUES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
 BEING INCREASED TO 115 KT. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS 330/07 KT. KILO 
 CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. 
 WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
 BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE KILO TO 
 SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION SLIGHTLY...WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE 
 WEST-NORTHWEST. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS RATHER 
 TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. AFTER THAT...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH 
 AND ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE MODELS DIVERGE AND SHOW 
 RATHER WIDE SPREAD DIFFERENCES. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY 
 FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS. NOTE THAT ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER 
 OF KILO MAY BE CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WITHIN THE NEXT 
 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 29C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN KILO AS A RATHER 
 INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LATEST 
 FORECAST SLIGHTLY NUDGED THE INTENSITIES UP COMPARED WITH THE 
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY. 
 HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND 
 SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST 
 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  31/0900Z 20.6N 178.6W  115 KT 135 MPH
  12H  31/1800Z 21.7N 179.1W  115 KT 135 MPH
  24H  01/0600Z 22.9N 179.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  01/1800Z 23.9N 179.9E  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  02/0600Z 24.5N 179.2E  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  03/0600Z 24.6N 177.5E  110 KT 125 MPH
  96H  04/0600Z 24.5N 176.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
 120H  05/0600Z 24.0N 174.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON