882
WTPA41 PHFO 310250
TCDCP1
HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2015
KILO HAS HAD A CLOUD-FILLED EYE ALL DAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS
STILL VERY HEALTHY IN THE EYEWALL WITH CLOUD TOPS PUSHING ABOVE
THE -80C LEVEL. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0/115 KT FROM
SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 120 KT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE
HELD AT 110 KT. A 2150 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO REFINE THE INITIAL
WIND RADII.
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS 320/08 KT WITH KILO
MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 48 HOURS...A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO
WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST. THE STRENGTH AND
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE DIFFERS IN THE MODELS WHICH RESULTS IN A
WIDE SPREAD IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TRACKS. AN INTERESTING
OUTLIER IS THE HWRF WHICH TAKES KILO ON A NORTHWARD TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A 180 DEGREE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OPTS TO FOLLOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS AND NUDGES
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS...OR GFEX.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 29C ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK SO KILO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN A VERY HEALTHY CYCLONE.
THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.
SHIPS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN KILO...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVELY AS
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HWRF SHOWS SOME WEAKENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
SHIPS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES KILO INTO THE
CATEGORY 5 RANGE BY 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS KILO TO 100 KT IN THE 36 TO
48 HOUR TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THIS IS CLOSE
TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINS KILO AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 20.0N 178.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.0N 178.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 22.5N 179.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 23.5N 179.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 24.3N 179.6E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 24.7N 178.3E 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 24.5N 176.5E 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 24.0N 174.5E 110 KT 125 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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