654 
 WTPA41 PHFO 282037
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 28 2015
 
 KILO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN THIS MORNING
 WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. 
 THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 
 3.5...55 KT FROM SAB...4.0...65 KT FROM PHFO...AND 4.5...77 KT FROM 
 JTWC. WITH THE OVERALL APPEARANCE HAVING CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE 
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WE WILL KEEP KILO AS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM 
 WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08. THERE HAS BEEN NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 120
 HOURS WITH MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINING TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. KILO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE
 SHORT TERM AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
 ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 24
 TO 36 HOURS AS KILO EXPERIENCES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND BEGINS
 TO ROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A GENERAL
 NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH CONSENSUS
 GUIDANCE. ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER 
 THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  
 
 KILO WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
 29C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND SHIPS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR OF 8 TO 11 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. SHIPS
 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 12
 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR KILO TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE
 LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
 NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH LINES UP
 WELL WITH ICON AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
 
 DATA FROM AN EARLIER 0906 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT SOUTHWEST
 WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AS THE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
 TO ITS NORTH. WITH THE CENTER OF KILO NOW ABOUT 150 MILES
 WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS
 BE DISCONTINUED WITH THIS ADVISORY. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/2100Z 17.5N 171.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 17.6N 173.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 17.8N 174.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 18.3N 175.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 19.3N 177.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  31/1800Z 21.9N 178.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  01/1800Z 24.4N 179.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  02/1800Z 26.2N 179.1E   90 KT 105 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE