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 557 
 WTPA41 PHFO 262045
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015
  
 LAST EVENING/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES...AS WELL AS CONVENTIONAL 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT KILO IS FINALLY BECOMING BETTER 
 ORGANIZED. THE PREVIOUSLY ELLIPTICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW 
 MUCH MORE CIRCULAR...AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN 
 OCCURRING AROUND THE ASSUMED LOW LEVEL CENTER SINCE ABOUT 1000 UTC. 
 IN ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS 
 IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 18 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM SAB AND PHFO AND 3.0 FROM JTWC INDICATE THAT 
 KILO HAS FINALLY REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WE HAVE RAISED 
 THE INTENSITY TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 200/2...PARTLY
 DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN DETERMINING PRECISELY WHERE KILO MADE THE
 U-TURN. A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
 NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS JUST TO THE
 NORTHWEST OF KILO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY 36 
 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING KILO TO RESUME A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. AT THE
 LONGER TIME RANGES...KILO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
 AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 
 SURFACE...AND TURNS TOWARD A WEAK TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
 LEVELS. THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
 CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT
 48-72 HOURS AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE
 LONGER RANGE.
 
 NOW THAT KILO APPEARS TO BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER...A GRADUAL
 INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
 SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED
 TO IMPART WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS MODEL
 CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON HOW MUCH SHEAR WOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR. IT IS 
 NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING. THE
 SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29C...SO 
 INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
 NUDGED UPWARD...TO BE GENERALLY STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/2100Z 18.3N 167.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 18.1N 167.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 17.8N 168.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 17.5N 169.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 17.4N 170.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 17.8N 172.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 19.0N 175.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  31/1800Z 21.1N 176.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER R BALLARD
 
 
 
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