557
WTPA41 PHFO 262045
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015
LAST EVENING/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES...AS WELL AS CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT KILO IS FINALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE PREVIOUSLY ELLIPTICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW
MUCH MORE CIRCULAR...AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND THE ASSUMED LOW LEVEL CENTER SINCE ABOUT 1000 UTC.
IN ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 18 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM SAB AND PHFO AND 3.0 FROM JTWC INDICATE THAT
KILO HAS FINALLY REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WE HAVE RAISED
THE INTENSITY TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 200/2...PARTLY
DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN DETERMINING PRECISELY WHERE KILO MADE THE
U-TURN. A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KILO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY 36
TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING KILO TO RESUME A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. AT THE
LONGER TIME RANGES...KILO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...AND TURNS TOWARD A WEAK TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE
LONGER RANGE.
NOW THAT KILO APPEARS TO BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER...A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED
TO IMPART WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON HOW MUCH SHEAR WOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR. IT IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING. THE
SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29C...SO
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD...TO BE GENERALLY STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 18.3N 167.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.1N 167.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 17.8N 168.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.5N 169.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 17.4N 170.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 17.8N 172.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 19.0N 175.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 21.1N 176.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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