086 
 WTPA41 PHFO 261448
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015
  
 A WELL-PLACED 0808 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER 0601 UTC
 SSMS MICROWAVE PASS BOTH REVEALED THAT KILO REMAINED POORLY
 ORGANIZED AT THAT TIME...WITH THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
 CENTER /LLCC/ DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
 ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA ALSO INDICATED A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SSW 
 FROM THE LLCC. THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS FROM THE ASCAT PASS
 WERE 25 KT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T2.5
 OR 35 KT FROM ALL THREE CENTERS...WILL WEIGHT THE ASCAT DATA MOST
 HEAVILY AND MAINTAIN KILO AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.
 
 THE ASCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA REQUIRED THE 0600 UTC BEST TRACK
 POSITION TO BE RE-ANALYZED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...AND IT NOW
 APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION HAD NOT
 YET BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A VERY
 UNCERTAIN 260/04 KT. WITH THE CENTER RELOCATION AND CHANGE IN
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED BACK
 TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE
 RELIABLE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT KILO WILL BE FORCED
 ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A STRONG
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A
 GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST SHOULD FOLLOW BY 48 HOURS. BEYOND 72
 HOURS...KILO IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
 AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY TO THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AND IS ALSO
 SOMEWHAT SLOWER DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE CHALLENGING. KILO WILL BE
 MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C WITH AMPLE
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 120 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AND
 SHIPS OUTPUT SHOW LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR 
 OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER
 HAND...KILO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...AS HAS BEEN THE
 CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
 CONSISTENTLY RUNNING TOO HIGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE
 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT KILO WILL
 FINALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
 HISTORY OF KILO THUS FAR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW
 ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS IS CLOSEST TO
 THE LGEM...AND IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
 INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/1500Z 18.9N 167.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/0000Z 18.6N 168.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  27/1200Z 18.2N 168.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  28/0000Z 17.9N 169.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  28/1200Z 17.7N 170.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  29/1200Z 18.0N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  30/1200Z 19.0N 175.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  31/1200Z 20.5N 177.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON/WROE