114 
 WTPA41 PHFO 230905
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2015
  
 ANOTHER FLIGHT BY A CREW FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE 
 SQUADRON WENT INTO KILO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEIR FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS 
 FROM AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET SHOWED STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 33 
 KT...WITH AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 28 KT FAR NORTHEAST OF 
 THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER. THEY ALSO WERE NOT ABLE TO FIND A 
 WELL-DEFINED LOWER LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS THEY PASSED 
 THROUGH THE APPARENT CENTER BEFORE THEIR RETURN TO HONOLULU. 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER RAGGED LOOKING SYSTEM...SO IT IS 
 NOT SURPRISING THAT THEY WERE NOT ABLE TO TRACK A DEFINITIVE LOW 
 LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 
 1.5 FROM JTWC...2.0 FROM SAB...AND 2.5 FROM PHFO. THE LATEST 
 ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT 
 OBSERVATIONS AND A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 PRIMARILY BASED ON THE 
 AIRCRAFT FIX. KILO CONTINUES TO BE STEERED AT A RATHER RAPID PACE 
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST 
 OF THE BIG ISLAND IN HAWAII. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH CURRENTLY 
 EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR LONGITUDE 164W...IS FORECAST 
 TO WEAKEN ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS A RESULT...KILO WILL 
 LIKELY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING WHICH WOULD CAUSE IT 
 TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN 
 THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE 
 NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY 3 TIME PERIOD. 
 AFTER THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO FORECAST DURING 
 DAYS 4-5...DUE IN PART TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS NORTH 
 OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVATURE AT THE 
 LONGER TIME RANGE APPEARS TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE 
 TROUGH ALOFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
 TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE GFDL AND HWRF. NOTE THAT THE 
 ECMWF HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE LEFT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...SO THIS 
 HAS STARTED TO DRAG THE CONSENSUS TO THE WEST. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY 
 TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS A LONG-TERM TREND SO WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY 
 DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
  
 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE 
 TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES 
 OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE 8 KT FROM 285 DEGREES BASED 
 ON THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND 7 KT FROM 305 DEGREES BASED ON THE 
 SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 
 ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS GENERAL 
 ENVIRONMENT IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT 
 WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...ASSUMING KILO CAN BECOME 
 BETTER ORGANIZED...SLOW INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. THE CURRENT 
 INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY. THIS IS 
 MOST IN LINE WITH SHIPS...SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS APPEAR 
 TO PREDICT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM BY DAYS 4-5. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY 
 TO INCREASE THE LONG TERM INTENSITY GIVEN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/0900Z 15.2N 162.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 15.8N 163.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 16.5N 164.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 17.2N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  25/0600Z 18.1N 164.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  26/0600Z 19.1N 164.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  27/0600Z 19.6N 163.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  28/0600Z 20.3N 163.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON