446 
 WTPA41 PHFO 220245
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES THROUGH THE DAY SHOWED THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF
 KILO HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. AN EXPOSED...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
 CIRCULATION CENTER IS EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF ASSOCIATED DEEP
 CONVECTION...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
 AFFECTED BY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 0000 UTC CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
 ONLY 8 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST SO IT IS SURPRISING THAT
 KILO/S DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ARRESTED. TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
 HAVE ALSO WARMED AND DECREASED IN SIZE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 CAME IN AT 45 KT FROM PHFO...HELD UP DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS... 
 30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE 
 OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZATION...KILO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. 
 
 THE DETERIORATING CONDITION OF KILO MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST A
 CHALLENGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM...ABOVE 29C...AND
 THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FROM RAMMB-CIRA SHOWS INCREASING VALUES TO
 THE WEST. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE MAIN INTENSITY OBJECTIVE AIDS POINT TOWARD
 FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH KILO STILL BECOMING A HURRICANE. HWRF IS
 THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH HURRICANE INTENSITY ACHIEVED AT 60 HOURS.
 THE FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE BUT STILL SHOWS KILO BECOMING A
 HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AND THE
 CONTINUED PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL INGREDIENTS. THIS
 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 PACKAGE. ALL OF THIS MAY BE IRRELEVANT IF KILO IS NOT ABLE TO
 DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR IT/S CENTER. IF THIS
 DEVELOPMENT FAILS TO OCCUR...THEN KILO WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
 REMNANT LOW. WHILE SURPRISING...IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE CENTRAL
 NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.
 
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE. KILO IS
 MOVING AT 285/12 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
 THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD
 WESTWARD TO KEEP KILO ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH
 THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...A WEAKNESS IN THE
 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION
 IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. MOST
 OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO BE MORE IN
 LINE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF STILL SHOW A
 NORTHEASTWARD TURN POINTED TOWARD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAIN
 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND LIES EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...THE GFS AND THE
 ECMWF...BUT A BIT WEST OF HWRF AND GFDL.
 
 A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WC-130J TOOK OFF AT ABOUT 22/0100 UTC AND
 WAS ENROUTE TO KILO. THE DATA FROM THIS MISSION SHOULD PROVIDE
 CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO IT/S STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. SUBSEQUENT
 FLIGHTS WILL TAKE PLACE AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
 WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED IN THE ATLANTIC...A WC-130J IS ALSO
 SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING
 IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/0300Z 13.4N 154.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  22/1200Z 14.0N 157.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  23/0000Z 15.0N 160.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  23/1200Z 15.8N 162.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  24/0000Z 16.7N 163.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  25/0000Z 18.5N 163.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  26/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  27/0000Z 21.5N 161.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA