230 
 WTPA41 PHFO 210348 CCA
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015
 
 CORRECTED THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE INITIAL FIX 
 TIME. 
 
 THE ORGANIZATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C HAS NOT IMPROVED
 THROUGH THE DAY AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION REMAINS
 POOR. AT AROUND 0000 UTC...AN APPARENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL
 APPEARED FROM BENEATH THE MAIN CLOUD MASS AND MOVED TOWARD THE
 NORTHEAST. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
 OF THE SYSTEM...LOW CLOUD LINE CURVATURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
 CIRRUS SHIELD AND THE CURVATURE OF THE WIND FIELD IN AN EARLIER
 ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT A CENTER COULD BE SOUTH OF THE DEEPEST
 CONVECTION. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE CONTINUITY OF THE
 PREVIOUSLY DERIVED MOTION. THE 0011 UTC AMSU PASS WAS NOT
 CONSIDERED TO BE CONCLUSIVE IN DETERMINING THE CENTER POSITION.
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 35 KT FROM PHFO...30 KT FROM
 SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS
 BEEN HELD AT 30 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOVEMENT FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 280/14 KT. OBJECTIVE AIDS
 REMAIN TIGHTLY LINED UP WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND A
 GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
 MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE TURN WITH THE HWRF AND GFS
 REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF ON
 THE WEST SIDE. THE TIMING OF THE TURN WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
 WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OCCURS. THE LONGER IT TAKES...THE
 FARTHER WEST THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE TURNING AND THIS ASPECT OF
 THE FORECAST HAS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
 HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BETWEEN
 THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS AND HWRF THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN IS
 EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. NOTE THAT IF THE LOW CENTER HAS INDEED SHIFTED TO
 THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR IT...SUBSEQUENT
 FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE.
  
 THREE-C IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN THE LATEST
 ANALYSIS. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM BUT IS
 EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AT LEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND REMAIN
 WEAK THROUGH 96 HOURS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION
 SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...ASSUMING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
 HAS NOT BEEN DECOUPLED FROM THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST
 CONSERVATIVELY HOLDS THE COURSE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CALLS
 FOR THREE-C TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
 A HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. AS WITH THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
 SEPARATED FROM THE REST OF THE SYSTEM.
 
 U.S AIR FORCE RESERVE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS ARE IN THE
 PROCESS OF DEPLOYING TO HAWAII AND A WC-130J IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN
 INITIAL PASS THROUGH THREE-C ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE
 VALUABLE DATA TO HELP BETTER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
 CENTER AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE WIND FIELD.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0300Z 11.0N 151.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  21/1200Z 11.5N 153.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  22/0000Z 12.3N 156.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  22/1200Z 13.2N 159.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  23/0000Z 14.7N 162.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  24/0000Z 17.3N 163.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  25/0000Z 19.5N 163.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  26/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA