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 417 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 011434
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013
  
 A TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 1122Z INDICATED THAT KIKO POSSESSED A
 WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE...BUT THERE WAS NO CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE
 BENEATH IT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A CIRA AMSU
 ESTIMATE OF 42 KT TO AS HIGH AS 72 KT FROM BOTH CIMSS AMSU AND ADT
 ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH KIKO COULD HAVE BRIEFLY BEEN A HURRICANE...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
 HIGHER THAN THE T3.5/55 KT ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/06 KT.  KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
 MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BEFORE TURNING
 TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE CYCLONE
 WEAKENS AND MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE VERTICALLY
 SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT COULD GET TRAPPED AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE
 WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE
 THAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
 THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS TVCE.  
  
 KIKO IS STILL OVER SSTS NEAR 27C...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING OVER
 SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH
 SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR
 IS LOW...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH
 OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD ALSO HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO. THE
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE
 LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE AFTER THE SYSTEM LOSES
 MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF ITS CONVECTION OVER 23-24C SSTS BY THAT
 TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
 INTENSITY MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/1500Z 21.3N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 21.9N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 22.6N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 23.4N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  04/1200Z 23.8N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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