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 026 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 312044
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013
  
 SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS
 AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO.  A RAGGED EYE HAS
 INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE
 IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS
 ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING.  HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT.  EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45
 KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY.  BASED
 UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE
 INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF
 UNCERTAINTY.
  
 THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
 MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
 AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR
 SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO
 DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE
 IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN.  HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR
 DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH
 AS IT DID.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED
 TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1
 HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC.  COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
 ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
 ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH
 STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
 REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR
 DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA
  
 
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