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 813 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 200900
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007
  
 UNTIL ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO...KIKO WAS NOT PRODUCING ALL THAT MUCH
 DEEP CONVECTION...BUT A HEALTHY BURST HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED OVER THE
 NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 45-55 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE
 ESTIMATES FAVORING THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE.  GIVEN THE INCREASE
 IN CONVECTION SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED
 SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
 STRENGTHENING...AND ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
 FORECASTS KIKO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING
 FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS GIVEN THE WEAK
 WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM SSTS.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY PEAKS AT 75
 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE THEREAFTER AS SHEAR
 INCREASES AND SSTS EVENTUALLY COOL BENEATH THE CYCLONE.
 
 KIKO CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 305/4...TO THE SOUTH OF
 A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY
 ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ERODE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
 DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
 STATES.  ALL OF THE MODELS EVENTUALLY SHOW THAT SYSTEM PROCEEDING
 EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
 AND CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS.  IN RESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN
 CHANGE...THE MODELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DIVERGENT BEYOND ABOUT 36
 HOURS.  THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
 BUT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT ON THE LATEST RUN...TAKING
 KIKO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
 48-72 HOURS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE
 OF THE MODEL SPREAD...SHOWING A WESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT FOR ME TO
 ANTICIPATE A WESTWARD TURN THAT SOON...GIVEN THAT KIKO SHOULD BE A
 DEEP SYSTEM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO ITS
 NORTH UNTIL ABOUT BEYOND 48 HOURS FROM NOW.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION AND IS A BIT
 FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING ON DAY
 2...BUT IT STILL CALLS FOR KIKO TO TURN WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE
 SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT
 THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MODEL
 SPREAD.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0900Z 17.7N 106.1W    50 KT
  12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.3N 106.8W    55 KT
  24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.1N 107.5W    65 KT
  36HR VT     21/1800Z 19.9N 108.2W    70 KT
  48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.7N 108.9W    75 KT
  72HR VT     23/0600Z 21.7N 110.7W    65 KT
  96HR VT     24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
 
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