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 471 
 WTPA41 PHFO 112043
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 1100 AM HST MON AUG 11 2008
 
 THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKA OVERNIGHT HAS 
 PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
 JTWC...PHFO...AND SAB REMAIN AT 25 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CIRA 
 MULTIPLATFORM TC WIND ANALYSIS.  UW/CIMMS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE 
 HIGH END AT 35 KT...WHICH CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE 
 OF THE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR KIKA WILL 
 REMAIN AT 30 KT IN CONSIDERATION OF THE UW/CIMMS ESTIMATE AND THE 
 PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
 
 TRACK VERIFICATION THUS FAR REVEALS A NORTHWARD OR RIGHT OF TRACK 
 BIAS IN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...DUE IN PART TO 
 THE PROJECTED INTENSIFICATION WHICH HAS NOT PLAYED OUT. FOR ALONG 
 TRACK ERRORS...DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST...WHILE 
 PERSISTENCE/CLIMO GUIDANCE IS ON THE SLOW SIDE BUT DOING BETTER. THE 
 18Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 
 HOURS...WITH THE HWRF...TVCN...AND EMXI EVEN SUGGESTING A SOUTHWARD 
 DISPLACEMENT AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY 
 PERIOD...EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING AT MID 
 LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR KIKA...AND DO NOT SEE 
 ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT DISPLACEMENT 
 TOWARD THE RIGHT OR NORTH. DESPITE THE SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH AND 
 THE SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IMPLIED BY THE 18Z 
 POSITION...WILL ADJUST THE ENTIRE 120 HR FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT 
 AND SLIGHTLY SLOW IT DOWN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE 
 SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND 
 CLOSER...THOUGH STILL ON THE SOUTHERN OR LEFT SIDE...TO THE MIDDLE 
 OF THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
  
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE KIKA ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO
 INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
 CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK. WILL KEEP KIKA AT 30 KT
 THROUGH 24 HOURS AND LOWER TO 25 KT AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...IN
 FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL BUT THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
 STUBBORNLY KEEPS PROJECTING KIKA TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE OR NEAR
 HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 120 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 10.5N 169.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.7N 171.2W    30 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 11.1N 174.0W    30 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 11.5N 176.9W    25 KT
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 11.8N 179.7W    25 KT
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 12.1N 175.3E    25 KT
  96HR VT     15/1800Z 12.9N 170.3E    25 KT
 120HR VT     16/1800Z 13.9N 165.6E    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER TANABE
  
 
 
 
 
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