471
WTPA41 PHFO 112043
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST MON AUG 11 2008
THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKA OVERNIGHT HAS
PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
JTWC...PHFO...AND SAB REMAIN AT 25 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CIRA
MULTIPLATFORM TC WIND ANALYSIS. UW/CIMMS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
HIGH END AT 35 KT...WHICH CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
OF THE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR KIKA WILL
REMAIN AT 30 KT IN CONSIDERATION OF THE UW/CIMMS ESTIMATE AND THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
TRACK VERIFICATION THUS FAR REVEALS A NORTHWARD OR RIGHT OF TRACK
BIAS IN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...DUE IN PART TO
THE PROJECTED INTENSIFICATION WHICH HAS NOT PLAYED OUT. FOR ALONG
TRACK ERRORS...DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST...WHILE
PERSISTENCE/CLIMO GUIDANCE IS ON THE SLOW SIDE BUT DOING BETTER. THE
18Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48
HOURS...WITH THE HWRF...TVCN...AND EMXI EVEN SUGGESTING A SOUTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY
PERIOD...EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING AT MID
LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR KIKA...AND DO NOT SEE
ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT DISPLACEMENT
TOWARD THE RIGHT OR NORTH. DESPITE THE SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH AND
THE SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IMPLIED BY THE 18Z
POSITION...WILL ADJUST THE ENTIRE 120 HR FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT
AND SLIGHTLY SLOW IT DOWN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND
CLOSER...THOUGH STILL ON THE SOUTHERN OR LEFT SIDE...TO THE MIDDLE
OF THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE KIKA ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK. WILL KEEP KIKA AT 30 KT
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND LOWER TO 25 KT AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL BUT THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
STUBBORNLY KEEPS PROJECTING KIKA TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE OR NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 10.5N 169.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 10.7N 171.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 11.1N 174.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 11.5N 176.9W 25 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 11.8N 179.7W 25 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 12.1N 175.3E 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 12.9N 170.3E 25 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 165.6E 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER TANABE
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