333
WTPA41 PHFO 110239
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2008
KIKA HAS BECOME RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
ONLY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE 0000 UTC
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC/JTWC/SAB ARE ALL RUNNING AT
1.5. THUS WE ARE DOWNGRADING KIKA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH
THIS PACKAGE. A FAIRLY RECENT ASCT PASS DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY
OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED I COULD FIND WAS
20 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. HAVE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR
THIS PACKAGE BUT THAT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.
AFTER A BIT OF A JOG TO THE SOUTH LAST NIGHT...THE PRESENT MOTION
APPEARS TO BE 280 DEGREES AT AROUND 14 KT. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED
FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA
REMAINS AT AROUND 6 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OR SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER 36 HOURS THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AROUND KIKA. THE AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL BE INCREASING BEYOND 48 HOURS BUT SINCE KIKA IS SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY WIN OUT RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM
REMAINING AS IS OR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THIS IS IN CONSENSUS OF MOST
OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY KIKA TO 50 KT IN 72 HOURS AND UP TO 65 KT BY 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 10.2N 164.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 10.5N 167.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 11.0N 169.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 11.5N 172.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 12.0N 175.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 13.0N 178.9E 30 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 13.9N 173.8E 25 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 14.7N 169.0E 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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