244 
 WTPA41 PHFO 091442
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 500 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
 
 CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
 KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH OVERNIGHT. 
 THE 1200 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AS
 WELL...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM PHFO/SAB/JTWC. HAVE
 KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/13 HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE PAST 18
 HOURS...AFTER LAST NIGHT/S DRAMATIC JOG TO THE SOUTH. KIKA IS
 FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OVER THE COURSE OF
 THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
 SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT TRACKS WESTWARD IN TANDEM
 WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH THIS
 PACKAGE TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND TO
 ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT KIKA HAS GAINED LITTLE LATITUDE OVER THE
 PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
 SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 KT CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER KIKA...
 ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...AND IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THE
 SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN THE 24-72 
 HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE 26.5 DEGREE C
 ISOTHERM...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. IN THE LATER 
 PERIODS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC
 HEAT CONTENT...WHILE AT THE SAME ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
 SHEAR AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND A SLIGHT
 WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/1500Z 10.2N 157.8W    35 KT
  12HR VT     10/0000Z 10.3N 159.8W    35 KT
  24HR VT     10/1200Z 10.6N 162.4W    40 KT
  36HR VT     11/0000Z 10.9N 165.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     11/1200Z 11.6N 168.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     12/1200Z 12.3N 173.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     13/1200Z 12.8N 179.2W    40 KT
 120HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N 175.1E    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD