Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 448 
 WTPA41 PHFO 072052
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 1100 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
 SIX HOURS...AND IN FACT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE
 PAST 24 HOURS. THE PHFO DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS 2.5/2.5...THE JTWC
 ANALYSIS WAS 2.0/2.5 AND THE SAB ANALYSIS WAS 2.0/2.0. WE HAVE KEPT
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. KIKA CONTINUES MOVING
 SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AND THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THE FORWARD
 MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 12 KT.
 
 COMPUTER MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG AND
 DEEP AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
 AT LEAST THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH
 SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING ALONG ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
 WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY
 CLUSTERED. WE HAVE CHANGED THE TRACK ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHIFTING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH IN THE
 MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 KIKA WILL REMAIN OVER 27C WATER WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE
 NEXT 96 HOURS. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND
 96 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER
 WESTERLY SHEAR...AND TO START WEAKENING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
 MUCH THE SAME SO THERE HAS BEEN NO NEED TO CHANGE THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST. 
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/2100Z 11.1N 149.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     08/0600Z 11.3N 151.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     08/1800Z 11.6N 154.2W    45 KT
  36HR VT     09/0600Z 11.8N 156.6W    45 KT
  48HR VT     09/1800Z 12.2N 159.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     10/1800Z 13.3N 164.4W    50 KT
  96HR VT     11/1800Z 14.6N 169.3W    50 KT
 120HR VT     12/1800Z 15.4N 174.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON
  
 
 
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for KIKA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman