027 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 050244
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015
 
 Satellite images indicate that the area of convection on the north
 side of Kevin continues to move farther away from the apparent
 center.  The low-level circulation also appeared to be elongating
 from north to south on the last light visible imagery, with a
 recent microwave pass confirming that degraded structure.  A blend
 of Dvorak estimates supports lowering the intensity to 40 kt.
 Remnant low status is expected by 36 hours, with the circulation
 probably degenerating into a trough by day 3.
 
 The center is getting harder to track, but I don't see convincing
 evidence that the initial motion has changed from the previous
 advisory, so it will remain 360/07.  A leftward turn should occur
 overnight due to the cyclone decoupling from its mid-level center
 and being steered more by the low-level flow.  The shallower cyclone
 should then gain a greater westerly component of motion this weekend
 as it moves around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern
 Pacific.  The new track forecast is basically just an update of the
 previous one, and is south of the model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 22.7N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 23.4N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 23.9N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 24.1N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  07/0000Z 24.2N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake