894 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 021436
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
 800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015
 
 Enhanced IR and shortwave imagery continues to depict a relatively
 shapeless, asymmetric, convective mass sheared to the northeast of
 the surface circulation.  Although deep convection has increased
 somewhat since yesterday, objective and subjective satellite
 intensity estimates still yield an initial intensity of 30 kt.  The
 global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance are
 indicating a small window of opportunity during the next 24-36 hours
 for some strengthening.  Through the remaining portion of the
 period, weakening to a remnant low by day 3 is expected as the
 cyclone enters a region of high static stability and begins to
 traverse cooler sea surface temperatures.  The official
 intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and FSSE
 forecasts and is quite similar to the previous advisory.
 
 A fortuitous 0849 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass helped immensely in
 locating the surface center and estimating the current motion of
 the depression which now appears to be northward or, 350/8 kt.  The
 cyclone should continue moving in this general direction during the
 next 36 hours or so.  After that time, a turn toward the
 north-northeast is forecast through day 3.  By that point in time,
 the tropical cyclone should degenerate into a shallow swirl of
 low-level clouds and basically drift within the weak steering flow
 created by an existing deep-layer trough west of the Baja California
 peninsula.  The NHC forecast continues to follow closely to the
 multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/1500Z 16.2N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 20.6N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 22.1N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  06/1200Z 23.1N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts