019 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 012041
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015
 
 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the system has not become
 better organized and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates
 that the cyclone remains at depression strength.  Therefore, the
 initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  The environment is expected to
 be only marginally conducive for some intensification during the
 next couple of days.  An amplifying mid- to upper-level trough
 situated to the northwest of the depression is forecast to produce
 modest southwesterly shear during the next couple of days.  Beyond
 the 48 hour period, the depression will be moving into a
 significantly more stable and drier air mass which should induce a
 more rapid decay of the cyclone.  The official intensity forecast is
 close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the Florida State
 Superensemble and is essentially an update from the previous
 advisory.
 
 The initial motion is northwestward or, 320/8 kt. The cyclone is
 expected to gradually move between a mid-level high pressure system
 over Mexico and the aforementioned deep-layer trough west of the
 Baja California peninsula during the next 2-3 days.  Beyond the 72
 hour period, the depression is expected to degenerate into a
 shallow, weak, system and is likely to meander in very weak
 low-level steering currents southwest of the Baja California
 peninsula until dissipation.  The NHC forecast is a little bit
 faster than the previous advisory and follows the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF)
 consensus closely.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 13.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 15.1N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 16.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 20.1N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 22.4N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  05/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  06/1800Z 24.0N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts