Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 369 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 300237
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2113Z 36 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE
 OVERPASS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. A
 CIMSS/NESDIS/NRL AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AROUND THE SAME TIME
 PERIOD REFLECTS AN INTENSITY OF 48 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THESE DATA AND A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
 FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...KEVIN IS EXPECTED
 WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO
 THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
 WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ICON
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
 KEVIN IS CURRENTLY RESIDING WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
 ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
 CENTRAL MEXICO...AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED BETWEEN THE
 CYCLONE AND HURRICANE JIMENA. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
 HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD DRIFT 350/5 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS
 NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TWO MODEL CLUSTERS DESCRIBE
 DISSIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIOS. THE GFDL/GFDN/NOGAPS/GFS/GFS
 ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND THE ECMWF GROUP SUGGEST A GRADUAL NORTH TO
 NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SECOND
 CLUSTER INCLUDES THE HWRF/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CANADIAN. THESE
 MODELS DIFFER BY SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
 A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
 THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. SINCE THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
 GROUPINGS REMAINS QUITE LARGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
 CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE MORE
 DOMINANT CLUSTER.  A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS IS
 ALSO REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 13.4N 122.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.9N 122.2W    50 KT
  24HR VT     31/0000Z 14.8N 122.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     31/1200Z 15.6N 121.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 16.3N 121.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 17.5N 120.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N 119.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     04/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for KEVIN

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman