580 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 240835
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
 100 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011
  
 MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE
 LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
 GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN NOR THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CHANGED
 SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 KEPT AT 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A RECENT ASCT PASS SUGGESTS
 THAT WINDS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE WEAKER. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO
 GRADUALLY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
 SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN WEAKENING.
  
 KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9
 KNOTS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND
 BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE AVAILABLE
 GUIDANCE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/0900Z 13.8N 120.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 14.3N 121.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  25/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  25/1800Z 14.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  26/0600Z 14.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  27/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA